| By Maureen O'Gara | Article Rating: |
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| December 16, 2008 04:52 PM EST | Reads: |
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Only a month ago Gartner predicted that chip sales would be up 0.2% this year and drop 2.2% next year.
Now it’s looked in its crystal ball again and foresees two years of back-to-back revenue decline, something that’s never happened before in the semiconductor industry, where year-over-year growth is the norm.
Based on preliminary data, the research house now thinks chips sales this year will be down 4.4% from last year to a total of $261.9 billion after plummeting an unprecedented 24.4% this quarter over last quarter.
Then it gets worse.
Next year it thinks they’ll be down 16.3% to $219.2 billion, maybe worse.
In a prepared statement, Gartner VP Bryan Lewis, said, not to compare this mess to the 2001 dot.com mess.
“This downturn is broad-based,” he said, “not limited to only technology, has a much different growth profile before the downturn, and has far less inventory buildup. Inventory levels this time have been monitored and more tightly controlled throughout the entire food chain, and this will help the market come back more quickly than in 2001.”
Semiconductors’ precipitous fall this quarter could also mean that some companies have over-corrected and kept inventory too low, which in turn could mean Q1 could see better-than-seasonal sales.
Gartner is expecting a comeback in 2010 with worldwide semiconductor revenues reaching $251.2 billion, 14.6%, followed by a 9.4% rise to $274.9 billion in 2011.
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Published December 16, 2008 Reads 2,366
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More Stories By Maureen O'Gara
Maureen O'Gara the most read technology reporter for the past 20 years, is the Cloud Computing and Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025.
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